Alireza Vafaeinejad, Sahar Soleimani Matin, Sana Haery,
Volume 14, Issue 1 (9-2024)
Abstract
According to the statistics of the World Health Organization, about 7.6 million people die from cancer every year, which is 70% of all deaths in low- and middle-income countries. It is also estimated that this number will reach more than 13 million people by 2030. Since the rate of cancer is increasing and the issues related to the spread of diseases, especially cancer, are directly related to geography and environment, this issue has been considered for a long time. The aim of this study is to develop statistical location models and use spatial information system to evaluate the role of spatial parameters and environmental factors in the prevalence of bladder cancer in the provinces of Iran. According to the statistical analysis of bladder cancer data in Iranian provinces, it was found that Yazd and Sistan-Baluchestan provinces have the highest and lowest incidence rates of bladder cancer in Iran, respectively. Also, by setting a minimum value and considering the global average of bladder cancer as a threshold, it was found that the rate of bladder cancer is low in 23% of the provinces, average in 30% of them, and higher than the global average in the remaining 47%. Bladder cancer, as one of the common public health problems in Iran, has a heterogeneous distribution in the country. Using random forest algorithm, this study examines the spatial distribution of bladder cancer in Iran and predicts its incidence in different regions. The results show that the random forest algorithm predicts the incidence of bladder cancer throughout Iran with considerable accuracy. Running the model on about 30% of the test data showed that the actual value of the data was predicted with an accuracy of 0.62. Finally, by implementing a statistical model, the risk factors of this disease are ranked and the rate of bladder cancer in the country is predicted. According to the results of this study, because the hot spots of bladder cancer are located in the central provinces of Iran, especially Isfahan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari provinces, it is suggested to conduct more detailed medical and statistical research in this field.