fa توسعه راهکاری مکانمند به منظور تحلیل بارش در حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه بر مبنای آمار فضایی سامانه های اطلاعات مکانی GIS پژوهشي Research <p dir="RTL" style="text-align: justify;"><span dir="RTL"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">بیش از نیمی از جمعیت جهان در مناطقی زندگی می‌کنند که بحران آب و بارش در آنجا جدی است. به&shy;خاطر مقابله با این بحران&shy;ها، محققان در علم اقلیم&shy;شناسی به اطلاعات بارندگی، تحلیل الگوها و مدل&shy;سازی روابط فضایی، داده&shy;کاوی مکانی و همچنین برآورد و تخمین بارش به جهت مدیریت و مقابله با این شرایط به شدت نیازمندند. از طرفی دیگر، تنوع</span></span></span> <span dir="RTL"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">مکانی الگوهای</span></span></span> <span dir="RTL"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">بارش،</span></span></span> <span dir="RTL"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">حاصل</span></span></span> <span dir="RTL"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">عوامل</span></span></span> <span dir="RTL"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">متنوعی همچون</span></span></span> <span dir="RTL"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">موقعیت جغرافیایی، ارتفاع، ویژگی&shy;های</span></span></span> <span dir="RTL"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">توپوگرافی منطقه</span></span></span> <span dir="RTL"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">مانند شیب و... است که بررسی این پدیده را دشوارتر نموده و موجب شده که در مطالعات گذشته به&shy;طور جامع به آن پرداخته&shy;نشود یا تنها تاثیر برخی عوامل همانند ارتفاع بررسی&shy;گردد. از این&shy;رو در این مقاله قصد داریم تا با کمک ابزارها و تکنیک&shy;های مختلف علم زمین&shy;آمار و با در&shy;نظر&shy;گرفتن عوامل محیطی و مکانی مختلف موثر بر بارش، راهکار مکانمند جامعی برای توصیف این عارضه جغرافیایی توسعه دهیم. از</span></span></span> <span dir="RTL"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">این&shy;رو، حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه به دلیل شرایط بحرانی که در سالیان اخیر با آن مواجه بوده&shy;است، به عنوان منطقه مطالعه موردی انتخاب گردید. ابتدا بارش ابتدا با کمک انواع روش&shy;های سنتی و زمین&shy;آمار، میان&shy;یابی شده و کریجینگ معمولی با کمک اعتبارسنجی تقاطعی و </span></span></span><span style="font-family:calibri,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;">RMS</span></span><span dir="RTL"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;"> برابر با 4.15</span></span></span> <span dir="RTL"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">به عنوان بهترین روش انتخاب شد. سپس با کمک روش&shy;های مختلف آمار فضایی، ازجمله تحلیل&shy;خوشه&shy;ای، نواحی جنوب و جنوب&shy;غربی این دریاچه به عنوان قسمت&shy;های داغ و پربارش شناسایی شدند</span></span></span><span dir="RTL"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">. </span></span></span><span dir="RTL"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;">در پایان نیز، از جهت مدل&shy;سازی روابط مکانی، رگرسیون عمومی بر بارش برازش داده&shy;شد و متغیر عرض جغرافیایی به عنوان تاثیرگزارترین متغیر وابسته بر بارش شناسایی گردید.</span></span></span></p> <div style="text-align: justify;">More than half of the world&#39;s population lives in areas where the water crisis and rainfall are serious. To cope with these crises, climatology researchers require rainfall data, pattern analysis, and rainfall estimation and management in order to manage and cope with these conditions. Iran is located in the middle belt in dry belt, which is characterized by low rainfall and high evapotranspiration. The average rainfall in the country is 250 mm and is subject to severe spatial and temporal changes. Variety of spatial factors such as position, elevation, topographic characteristics such as slope and aspect are the most effective factors in the spatial variation of rainfall. Each of these characteristics is able to determine the pattern of precipitation behavior.<br> Therefore, in this paper, the aim is to develop a comprehensive mechanism for describing this geographical problem with the help of various earth sciences tools and techniques and considering the various environmental and spatial factors affecting rainfall. The Basin of Urmia Lake is one of the most important and most valuable aquatic ecosystems in Iran and the world. The ecosystem of this lake is a typical example of a closed basin that all runoff drain in this basin. The catchment area of Lake Urmia is selected as a case study due to the critical situation that has been facing in recent years. At first, the synoptic data of 21 stations of the Meteorological and Adventure Organization of the Ministry of Energy are used. This data is collected during the period of 63 years of statistical period from 1951 to 2014, and then the annual precipitation rates of the stations are calculated as the dependent variable based on these statistics. In addition data, longitude, latitude, height and slope of each station as well as the average annual and average annual wind speed were also extracted as independent variables.<br> First, initial statistical tests (rainfall data normalization at stations, data normalization, trend review and deletion) were performed. Then, a combination of traditional and statistical methods are reviewed and examined. As a result, the ordinary Kriging method was selected with RMS equal to 4.15. Then, with the help of different analytical and spatial methods, including cluster analysis, the southern and southwestern regions of this lake as hot and high-frequency parts as well as low-low cold spots in the northern and central parts of the basin Lake Urmia and two spots in the Sarab and Salmas areas with low concentration of rainfall were identified in this area. At the end, in order to model spatial relationships, general regression was fitted to rainfall, and the latitude is obtained as the most effective dependent variable. In addition, longitude and wind speed are detected as the least effective variables on precipitation in the lake of Urmia. The results of this paper have shown that land survey methods are more accurate than traditional methods for locating Lake Urmia.</div> برآورد بارش, میان‌یابی, زمین‌آمار , مدل‌سازی روابط مکانی, تحلیل خوشه‌ای Rainfall estimation, Interpolation, Geo-statistics, Spatial Relationships Modeling, Cluster Analysis 139 151 http://jgst.issgeac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-600-1&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 H. Aghamohammadi حسین آقا محمدی Hossein.aghamohammadi@gmail.com 10031947532846005314 10031947532846005314 Yes بدون سازمان S. Behzadi سعید بهزادی Behzadi.iau@gmail.com 10031947532846005315 10031947532846005315 No بدون سازمان F. Moshtaghinezhad فاطمه مشتاقی نژاد Moshtagh_1980@yahoo.com 10031947532846005316 10031947532846005316 No بدون سازمان